Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would hold a lead over Senator Chuck Schumer if she challenged him ahead of his next election, according to a poll released Friday.
Newsweek reached out to Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer for comment via email on Friday morning.
Why It Matters
Schumer, a New York Democrat, faced a wave of backlash from Democratic voters last month over a procedural vote to advance a GOP-backed bill to temporarily fund the government. Democrats criticized him for advancing the vote with little fight, yielding no concessions from Republicans on the bill. It comes as many Democrats were already frustrated with what they viewed as a feeble response to President Donald Trump's administration.
Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive member of Congress representing parts of Queens and the Bronx in New York, has been floated as a potential opponent against Schumer. The new poll suggests she may be in a position to take him on in a few years if he chooses to seek reelection.
What to Know
The poll, conducted by Data for Progress among 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters from March 26 to 31, showed Ocasio-Cortez with nearly a 20-point lead in a hypothetical 2028 primary matchup between the two. The margin of error associated with the sample size is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Fifty-five percent of respondents said they would pick her over Schumer, while 36 percent said they would stick with the incumbent. An additional 9 percent said they aren't sure who they would vote for.
Other polls on the race, which is still three years away, haven't been conducted, so it's unclear whether these results will be replicated.
"The results indicate that Schumer has left himself vulnerable to a primary challenger in 2028, and that Ocasio-Cortez could be a strong candidate to defeat the incumbent New York senator. New York Democrats—and Democrats nationwide—clearly want a leadership that fights harder to defeat Trump and the MAGA agenda," the poll reads.
The poll also found that most New York Democrats want their elected officials to be doing more to oppose Trump. Eighty-four percent of respondents said elected Democrats aren't doing enough to resist him, while only 10 percent said they are doing enough.
Laura Tamman, a professor of political science at Pace University, told Newsweek the poll reflects difficult realities for Schumer.
"Democratic voters in New York were aghast by his decision to vote with the GOP on the funding bill. He tried to argue that a government shutdown would have had a bigger, more negative impact on people than the Republican spending bill, but I'm not sure Democrats wanted him to work towards a 'least bad outcome' of the budget process," she said. "I think they wanted to see someone take a stand against DOGE's large scale budget cuts and overreach."
She said that Schumer, who will be 77 in 2028, will be facing reelection at a time when Democrats are increasingly wary of older candidates, and that Ocasio-Cortez may benefit from being perceived as a younger, straight-shooting candidate.
"But 2028 is a lifetime away, and it's hard to make any predictions right now about what that race will look like," she said.
New York has long been seen as a safely Democratic state, with the liberal New York City propelling the party to power in most statewide races for decades. But Republicans have gained ground in the state in recent years, with former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying it by less than 13 points last year.
What People Are Saying
Bhaskar Sunkara, president of The Nation, a progressive magazine, wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "Replacing Chuck Schumer with AOC would be an incredible upgrade. I guess we'll have to wait four more years..."
Matt Stoller, director of research at the American Economic Liberties Project, wrote on X: "I've never seen Democratic voters genuinely angry at their leaders before."
MSNBC contributor Rotimi Adeoye wrote on X last month: "I don't want a 'left v moderate' ideological primary for Schumer. I want Pat Ryan, AOC, Daniel Goldman, and anyone else with fresh energy to primary Schumer. We need a new generation of leaders, not someone who has imaginary friends and uses them to understand swing voters."
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What Happens Next
Schumer, 74, isn't up for reelection until 2028, and he hasn't confirmed if he plans to run again. Ocasio-Cortez, 35, also hasn't made clear her future plans. She has also been floated as a potential presidential candidate for 2028 if Democrats choose to go down a more progressive route.
Update 4/4/2025, 2:58 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
