The MLB playoffs start Oct. 1.
The New York Yankees seem like a lock to make it to the postseason. That’s according to Fangraphs, which had them at a 100 percent probability of gaining entry, even after their 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Sunday. The defeat dropped their lead to a half-game in the American League East over the second-place Baltimore Orioles.
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Here’s our second shot at predicting the postseason roster Aaron Boone will have to manage. Read our first attempt here.
Starting lineup
C: Austin Wells
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Gleyber Torres
SS: Anthony Volpe
3B: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LF: Alex Verdugo
CF: Aaron Judge
RF: Juan Soto
DH: Giancarlo Stanton
The biggest difference here? A prediction that Verdugo will remain the Yankees’ starting left fielder over top prospect Jasson Domínguez. On Friday, general manager Brian Cashman made the trip to Chicago and told reporters that the Yankees’ front office believed that Verdugo gave the Yankees the best chance to win. With 19 regular season games remaining, it’s difficult to envision the Yankees changing their minds without some type of event such as an injury changing it for them.
It’s doubtful that the Yankees have more faith in the bat of Verdugo (.651 OPS, 137 games in MLB) than they do in Dominguez’s (.848 OPS, 44 games at Triple A). The separators are likely Verdugo’s defense and the fact he played 11 games in the playoffs in 2021, helping the Boston Red Sox to the American League Championship Series.
Also, it seems clear at this point that Wells should be considered the Yankees’ starting catcher, though it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Jose Trevino start against a particularly tough lefty or when ace Gerrit Cole is on the mound considering their rapport.
Rizzo goes the other way and the left fielder bobbled in but Jazz held up pic.twitter.com/6Myaqkk1Q7
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) September 8, 2024
Bench
C: Jose Trevino
Util: Oswaldo Cabrera
Util: Jon Berti
OF: Trent Grisham
Leaving DJ LeMahieu off the playoff roster? It could come down to that. He’s played in just one game since Aug. 28. Offensively, he seems like he’s not going to rebound this season, and his defense has been shaky. But what if Boone needs to pinch run late in the game for Rizzo? Would the Yankees trust Cabrera as a defensive substitute at first base in the postseason?
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Berti was likely to be activated off the injured list Monday and he would give the Yankees positional versatility and a base-running threat, though if the team wanted to take 14 position players in the postseason it could include outfield speedster Duke Ellis. The club could also leave Grisham off the roster in favor of Ellis since it’s unlikely Judge would need any time out of center field.
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole
Luis Gil
Carlos Rodón
Marcus Stroman
Cole would be the unquestioned Game 1 starter. Putting Gil in the bullpen at this point feels like a stretch, considering how much he’s meant to the rotation, how uncertain it would be that he would adapt well to the bullpen role despite having ninth-inning stuff, and the fact that keeping him as a starter might help him stay healthy amid a huge uptick in workload. Either Rodón or Gil would start Game 2. It also seems unlikely the Yankees would ask Stroman to transition to relief work.
Gerrit Cole gets his 7th strikeout! 💪#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/qUhEkVqaPS
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 8, 2024
Bullpen
Closer candidates: Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle
Late-inning mix: Jake Cousins, Clarke Schmidt, Ian Hamilton
Lefties: Nestor Cortes, Tim Hill
Middle/length: Mark Leiter Jr.
1-2-3 8th inning for Clay Holmes pic.twitter.com/VArjDDNzNB
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) September 8, 2024
Perhaps Holmes will have regained his hold on the closer’s role by October. But if not, Weaver handled the ninth inning well on Saturday. Kahnle also gets whiffs and has pitched in three different postseasons.
The Yankees might be tempted to keep Schmidt in the rotation, especially after he looked so good Saturday, holding the Cubs scoreless over 4 2/3 innings in Saturday’s win, his first start since May 26. But the Yankees aren’t going to go to a five-man rotation in the playoffs. Two guys will have to shift to the bullpen. Schmidt has supreme confidence in his stuff. He also pitched in relief in the playoffs in 2022. As for Cortes, the Yankees likely appreciated how he handled entering the game in relief of Schmidt with a runner on base and two outs in the fifth inning Saturday. With Hill as the only other lefty currently, that may have signaled to the Yankees the Cortes could be just what they need in the bullpen.
Don’t be surprised if Leiter bounces back from a rough start to his Yankees tenure and finds himself in the late-inning combo.
(Photo of Clay Holmes: Jim Cowsert / Imagn Images)
Brendan Kuty is a Staff Writer for The Athletic covering the New York Yankees and MLB. He has covered the Yankees since 2014, most recently as a beat reporter for NJ Advance Media. Brendan was honored to receive the 2022 New Jersey Sportswriter of the Year award from the National Sports Media Association. He attended William Paterson University and the County College of Morris, and he is from Hopatcong, N.J.
